The future of diesel

[Snagger]

Its seems there is a mood in the media and in some political circles against diesel engines, mainly for the health issues associated with their emissions. VW (and judging by the Panorama programme, others including GM) antics in cheating the tests won't help political or public opinion. Modern politics seems to have little to do with logic or rational debate, and much more to do with emotive issues and media pressure.

Has anyone any idea if the authorities are looking to ban diesels, or make them economically unviable to use to get us to switch to petrol vehicles (or electric)? Does anyone know if they would be allowed to introduce retrospective legislation that would ban or tax existing diesels off the road, or whether they could only apply it to new build? (The last question comes out of the manner in which retrospective construction and emissions regulations are not applied to older vehicles now, but also the manner in which the road tax was retrospectively increased - doubled as I recall - for some TD5 vehicles).

It's a question to help plan future work on vehicles - there is no point in overhauling diesels if they are to become illegal or uneconomical.

[reb78]

Something I have been wondering about too.

[Cynic-al]

I'm sure you already know but they were 'banned' in Paris some time ago, there have also been restrictions on commercials in London for some time as well based on the Euro 5 etc ratings. There has also been talk for some years of reducing the speed limit on the M1 to 60mph around the Derby area as it is believed this will significantly improve air quality in that area. Trials are underway with smart motorways in the Midlands, M42 etc which although initially intended for congestion reasons air quality is being monitored to see if there is a significant impact.

They have investigated the test methods used for all vehicles and found them to be unrepresentative of usual driving, hugely out of date and have concluded that manufacturers in general are leaning towards designing their vehicles to ace the test (which in itself is in no way illegal) rather than giving real world efficiency or eco friendliness. This has led to an enormous variation between what they quote and what we get. I've said for a long time the quoted figures are at best for comparing two cars that your considering buying, not an indication of running costs. As an example the test includes a large portion of idling which is why stop start and hybrid vehicles achieve such amazing figures. OK if you drive around the middle of a city day in and day out maybe that is representative but the majority of us start the engine and do our 30 mile trip with few hesitations along the way. Their intention is to rework the test that new vehicles undergo to make it more real world representative to make the buyer better informed and to encourage manufacturers to strive for a real world target.

Diesels and hybrids are very misunderstood. Everyone buys a diesel as the book says the Petrol Polo will do 50mpg and the diesel will do 70mpg or whatever. However there is little information to tell them that if they're only using their car to do 3 miles to work and 3 miles home every day the real world cost and emissions of the petrol engine car is going to be lower due to lower purchase price, lower service and insurance costs, usually lower pump prices on petrol, clogging EGR and DPF through not getting them warm etc etc.

[Quagmire]

Dunno, but the wife and I have just opted for the petrol version of our new car just in case (that and every other vehicle we own is petrol too).

[Quagmire]

Just to add to the above- one of our fleet is a petrol 1.2 turbo Polo (64 reg). I regularly get 60-65mpg out of that which matches or exceeds quoted figures. The (65 plate) diesel golf we have temporarily however never meets its book figures...

[d-9]

I went fully petrol a few years back, no regrets I mean having a vehicle that does over 30mpg would be nice, but it motivates me to cycle to work, at which point my petrol bill vanishes and I can justify far more interesting cars.

I can see the government being under pressure to meet air pollution targets and cutting diesel emissions would be a big way to do that. Probably that will translate to higher prices at the pump, and maybe higher road tax for the rest of us.

[dirtyninety]

So what about machinery, tractors, plant and lorrys... are we going to have to go to electric...

On another note, tractor MOT's are coming in shortly, and i presume a lot of the older tractors wont pass emissions or roadworthyness. Great for us in our new tractors with Adblue, but really really bad news for smaller farmers with old ropey tractors.

[Arjan]

Hmm....

Total ban on diesels is unlikely but politicians are not really know for intelligent decisions, are they...

Modern diesel truck have cleaner stuff leaving the exhaust than the stuff that enters it in the first place these days.

On a global scale, cars are not he biggest polluter but they are the easiest target.

Will keep the diesel though.

[landroversforever]

So what about machinery, tractors, plant and lorrys... are we going to have to go to electric...

On another note, tractor MOT's are coming in shortly, and i presume a lot of the older tractors wont pass emissions or roadworthyness. Great for us in our new tractors with Adblue, but really really bad news for smaller farmers with old ropey tractors.

I thought the tractor MOT was going optional, only if you wanted to run at an increased MGW?

[Anderzander]

There was a documentary recently on the Diesel engine - focusing on how much it is used in industry - trains, ships, and so on - the list was endless..... Banning them would be crippling for so many companies I think.

[Chicken Drumstick]

I can't see diesels being banned. That's just hyperbole and scaremongering.

There are far too many diesel powered vehicles to do something so drastic and radical. And historically very few things are ever back dated. So it's perfectly legal to use old cars or even steam powered ones should you wish burning real coal.

Every bus and lorry round where I live is diesel. You can hardly ban diesel cars and then let large commercials and HGV's continue using it in the same places.

[Nigelw]

The Netherlands hates diesels

256 diesel surcharge in the quarterly bill

This will be the way they do it, also we have LEZs too where diesels built before 2001 cannot enter, well unless you are a "classic" vehicle over 40yrs old.

They can and will do what they want, just like when here in NL they reverted back to the 40yr "classic" (old timer) status from 25yrs, none of this " from this date xxxx" any future old timer status will be granted at 40yrs old" just a letter stating your vehicles build date and your next tax bill.

No diesels will never be banned but the governments will find ways to exploit diesel vehicle owners pockets in the name of the environment.

Those worst affected will not be those who can afford to buy new but those on lesser incomes where the majority of vehicles will be diesel engined as at that time diesel was the in fashion fuel of choice.

[B reg 90]

I swopped a diesel civic for a petrol one when we changed it last year as I thought diesel tax would go up. Plus I believe that diesel cars will be increasingly restricted from city centres.

Now looking at changing my 20 year old disco and wondering if I can get a decent lpg disco...

[Team Idris]

Engineers Perspective;

Looking into the future at new Diesel engines it is hard to fit particulate filters and converters to smaller vehicles. It's a simple case of packaging that will likely make smaller 'things' petrol/electric. (Or hydrogen).

[guy009]

I'd be interested in knowing (but not interested enough to google it for myself because i'm lazy) how a bio diesel or veg oil type of fuel fares on the emissions? i.e. does it produce the same type of controlled emissions, or does it e.g. not produce the 'controlled' pollutants, but creates something else that is just as bad but no one regulates for yet.

[L19MUD]

Just read this and seen the comment re tractor MOT's (and panicked!!!) looks like there has been a u turn on trailer and tractor MOT's following successful lobbying of the NFU

phew!

[tacr2man]

Just read this and seen the comment re tractor MOT's (and panicked!!!) looks like there has been a u turn on trailer and tractor MOT's following successful lobbying of the NFU

phew!

Dont think that NFU lobbying was the real reason , its down to the DFT selling off all the HGV test stations , and not being able to get any suitable facilities with the private ATF owners

[Anderzander]

Have you seen the cuts to the DoT ? Pretty radical.

[need4speed]

There has been a change in the way the wind is blowing regarding diesels for a while. And it's only going to get worse. I reckon diesels are going to be HAMMERED with tax in upcoming years..

[western]

& everything else including bus & train fares & food WILL go up in price because the transport operators will still have to make a profit, so nobody wins.

[Bowie69]

Reckon they will target the public rather than companies, to stave off inflation.

Very easy to put £3K tax on a private car

Petrol FTW!

[Anderzander]

Starting to think I shouldn't put a diesel in my series anymore

[Daan]

Diesel has been pushed for years to achieve targets on Co2 emisions. Now there is the realization that diesel smoke is not good for public health. I reckon the solution will be to use diesel in the country side and petrol in towns and busy areas.

Daan

[Sheffield]

I think it inevitable that older diesel vehicles will be taxed off the road, as they are an easy target that will not upset the politicians and their string puller.. Such vehicles are mostly in the hands of the poorer people in society, who have little political power, and either do not vote or if they do tend to vote for the wrong party. Recent governments policies have show that, and I do not just mean the Tories. Remember the 10 pence income tax?

Not much encouragement to those of us who have aquired a good 300TDI Discovery we had intended to keep in the long term..

The real causes of pollutions are too difficult or too powerful for polliticians to take on, but they need to be seen to be doing something.

[Snagger]

My concern is that private vehicles will be affected - I can't imagine them targeting commercial vehicles, especially agricultural equipment, though I expect vans and taxis could be caught up in it. It seems buses and taxis are the worst offenders in the cities, and that is where the problem lies, so having the next generations of each as electric seems the sensible option, and let diesel cars continue, but like I said, logic seldom comes into these things.

I like diesels in LRs, but wonder whether the 300Tdi I had rebuilt by Turner Engineering will encumber its associated RRC with restrictions (emission zones in the UK only apply to commercial vehicles at the moment, but they could follow Paris' example) or crippling costs. I wonder whether it'd be better to put a V8 in it when I do the rebuild in the future, at more cost and the loss of the vehicle's originality. I have similar concerns over my 109 - I dodge the bullet at the moment as it's a "historic vehicle", but if they put stupendous taxes on diesel, there won't be any way around it. I can see V8 engines going up in value like the Defender version of the 200Tdi if this does happen.