Jump to content

Recommended Posts

12 minutes ago, ballcock said:

3 weeks then the next 3 weeks then the next. we don't know how long this will go on for. I will try to make the most of my time doing something constructive whilst trying to minimise risk. 

China shut down for six weeks.  Place like the UK will be much longer as they are not behaving as nicely. These are the daily case counts for the UK. Just starting to see the steep part of exponential growth.

image.png.2204e3501dc89aa9f766deb524372498.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yeah I know, it’s just 3 weeks as that seems manageable and then once we are in the groove just 3 weeks more and so on. Like at a restaurant when it’s just 10 minutes until a table is free and then just a little more. 
Still a Doctor coming off another 12 hour shift dealing with multiple deaths  isn’t going to want to be spending time stitching people up that couldn’t put them first when considering which activities needed doing. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
43 minutes ago, Escape said:

Because it's human nature. A lot of us don't want to just sit idle and try to make some use of the time we now get. Such as cleaning or tidying the house/garage/workshop, doing garden work or getting on with long standing projects. And while we will take all possible safety measures, chances are you'll run in to something that is easier and/or safer with a mate. Not intentionally looking for risk, far from it, but there's always the possibility and in the current situation I think it's more likely than under normal circumstances.

Filip

Human nature covers both sensible reasonable considerate action and selfish idiotic action. By all means do activities (I certainly am) , reading, planning, sensible exercise, light tidying.  Chances are you do run into a job that is better with two, so all possible safety measures aren’t open to you, so just stop right there and don’t do it move on to something else.

Be the sensible human nature.  

I’ve got a couple of cupboards that could do with being downstairs. Am I going to move them this weekend (or anytime soon)? Hell no. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I've now got 2 or 3 projects where making progress means going out for supplies - either to B&Q, a far away shed, or round to a mate's... I'm resisting the temptation.

Got punished with gardening duties today as if things aren't bad enough already!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Red90 said:

China shut down for six weeks.  Place like the UK will be much longer as they are not behaving as nicely. These are the daily case counts for the UK. Just starting to see the steep part of exponential growth.

I'm not sure that's accurate. If the idea of the lockdown is to flatten the curve, a less strict lockdown (either by design or because people don't follow the rules) will mean less flattering so actually a shorter time before numbers drop. The problem is the peak needs to be manageable. Apart from Spain and Italy (despite their lockdown), I haven't seen any indications of the medical services being overwhelmed. It is claimed to be so in Bhellgium, but numbers say otherwise with only about 30 to 40% of reserved hospitals beds being used.  

To be clear, I'm not questioning the need to take measures (and will follow them within reason), just not convinced it's the right kind of measures and not buying into the panic.

Filip

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I agree, people are saying the sooner we get locked down the sooner we get through it, but lockdown is to draw it out and flatten the curve.
The spread rate is exponential, the incubation period is 5 days or more and then another 2 weeks to get complications.  So applying the lock down brakes now wont take effect for a couple of weeks. So heath service can cope now but it’s all still going up for the next couple of weeks. 

Then we hold but there isn’t much of an exit strategy until the vaccine this time next year. Those that have been infected and have the antibody test go back to work and at risk people stay at home still.

China is starting to ease restrictions but with 60% immunity it’s all possible to get a second wave.

if the testing and control is really good that may be manageable and prevented.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Tells you everything you need to know about modeling. Even links to some interactive tools so you can play around with strategies yourself. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

My wife works for YAS (Yorkshire Ambulance Service ) and says the number of accidents , RTA’s etc etc have fallen through the floor as obviously people aren’t working , aren’t driving as much , the roads are eerily quiet . I’m still working (farming ) and have been on the road all day with the slurry tanker , normal Saturdays are a nightmare with traffic , walkers and cyclists , seen no more than half a dozen of each today . Think of the spike when everyone eventually gets back on the roads and back to work (hopefully!) 😖

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

i must admit i am cracking on slowly doing jobs on landy but with more thought into the what if....    

currently steam cleaned underside prior to waxoil - so only rear wheel off and used works much heavier duty 20 ton axle stands to keep from moving and 90% of it is done by just reaching under and no more in case moves, oh and other half is present all the time so if goes wrong i can get help called fast.

the extra coffee stop, set a small target each day to ensure no rush all sensible precautions.   

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I have to say while there isn't much traffic round us, a fair proportion of it is going way too fast, not slightly over the limit but way over, or not slowing for junctions. We can hear motorbikes racing along the nearby A road. I can imagine that when accidents do happen they will be more serious than usual.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

good point on the traffic/speed - we live i guess 1 minute walk max from end of 40 into 60 limit and traffic is howling past,    so either rocket ship acceleration or just not sticking to limit.      must actually walk it as literally door to sign is real close.    

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, davie said:

so either rocket ship acceleration

Imagine what this will be like when they are electric and can all do 0-60 in for seconds.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

deleted - too dark.

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

We live high up above the main road through the Hope Valley and over the years it's become a busy road as it provides a route west through to the Snake Pass and also directly over the hills to the dark side.

I'd say since about Thursday it has gone very quiet. Yesterday and today there are a few cars but no motorbikes. During last week there were plenty of work related vehicles, builders, farmers, quarry tankers and trucks. I'd expect that to continue until / unless there are tighter directives.

The snow showers and 5C with a breeze is also a factor today. 

Edited by Peaklander
Added current wx

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 hours ago, Escape said:

I'm not sure that's accurate. If the idea of the lockdown is to flatten the curve, a less strict lockdown (either by design or because people don't follow the rules) will mean less flattering so actually a shorter time before numbers drop. The problem is the peak needs to be manageable.

Unfortunately no.  A proper lockdown stops the spread and makes for less cases and a quicker end.  They did not just slow it.  They stopped it.  In one night, they closed everything and controlled all movement.  I have friends that have been there the whole time.  They think we are all idiots for not taking this seriously.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 3/26/2020 at 1:05 PM, Nonimouse said:

So in reality we are all Nigel in some way

Perhaps he’s the archetype and we just have the traits ? 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
55 minutes ago, Red90 said:

Unfortunately no.  A proper lockdown stops the spread and makes for less cases and a quicker end.  They did not just slow it.  They stopped it.  In one night, they closed everything and controlled all movement.  I have friends that have been there the whole time.  They think we are all idiots for not taking this seriously.

They are right we have been slow but once the lockdown finishes people can still catch it so the same issues exist. The virus remains out there waiting. 


China is now effectively importing cases as people come back from other places for example. 

You are going back to the start of the outbreak to a degree.


If you can test and isolate that might be okay but you need to be able to stay on top of it with that approach.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, mad_pete said:

The virus remains out there waiting. 

Well...not really.  Once there are no cases in an area, there is no virus. It can't live outside a host for long.  Then it is just a case of managing travelers.

I think you guys are not really thinking the whole thing through very well.  You do not go from complete lockdown to normal business in one day.  They are much more advanced.....   After the restrictions were relaxed, there was still strict control and monitoring.  Masks to go anywhere.  Limited people in buildings with permission. Temperatures measured on every person entering every building. Strict and continuous testing of any symptomatic people and aggressive contact tracing.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think it can last 9 days on hard surfaces and remain in the air, likely within droplets, for 3 hours.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Red90 said:

Well...not really.  Once there are no cases in an area, there is no virus. It can't live outside a host for long.  Then it is just a case of managing travelers.

I think you guys are not really thinking the whole thing through very well.  You do not go from complete lockdown to normal business in one day.  They are much more advanced.....   After the restrictions were relaxed, there was still strict control and monitoring.  Masks to go anywhere.  Limited people in buildings with permission. Temperatures measured on every person entering every building. Strict and continuous testing of any symptomatic people and aggressive contact tracing.

You can rest assured I have put a great deal of thought into this.   So while it is true once’s cases are gone they are gone but how do you know it’s really gone ?
The incubation period is 5-10 days and some people show no symptoms. People are infectious without symptoms and super spreaders can infect up to 10 people.  So that makes it harder. My last paragraph says you can test and isolate but you have to stay on top of it and keep that going until the vaccine. Strict test and isolate is the first phase of the virus response (Containment) so it’s like being back at the start.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Will be interesting, if not potentially distressing, to see the outcome of some of the varied policies around the world.  The US in particular doesn't seem to be responding in the way you would have imagined, hope that doesn't turn out a bad bet. 

When you look at the map of worst infected areas it definitely seems to be concentrating on cold damp climates - South Africa will be a usefull indicator of whether this thing may die off when the weather picks up. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I dont think its going to go away at all. Maybe minimised for a while, but it only takes one carrier.

Similar in a way to tuberculosis. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It’s not a fast mutator as I understand it so immunity should hold as should the vaccine. 
The current view is the weather isn’t going to help unfortunately.  

I think US and Africa are going to have some tough times coming up. I hope I’m wrong.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We use cookies to ensure you get the best experience. By using our website you agree to our Cookie Policy