Jump to content

Recommended Posts

There is an article in the Spectator that goes through some of the statistics around the various death rates in the UK normally. The phrase that grabbed me was "But we have yet to see any statistical evidence for excess deaths, in any part of the world." (Excess deaths - i.e. more deaths than we would have had normally in the same period).

Spectator, 28th March 2020, "The Corona Puzzle" Dr John Lee.

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Precisely. Spanish Flu after the 1st World war seemed to kill younger fitter people (maybe they were more exposed to it as soldiers travelled?) hence the death toll was high. 

Covid 19 seems to be getting the elderly and the ill. I don't want to sound callous, but people that sadly would likely to have died in 2020 irrespective. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

An excellent post, Monkie.

I don't know about anyone else, but I've got far more anxiety about the economic impact than the death rate. The lockdown has already devasted my income and despite government care packages, I reckon 2/3 of my customers will be gone if measures last longer than a few months. That's my business gone, and I'm hardly in a unique situation. Lives are valuable, but not infinitely so. If we're not careful, we end up in a world that's not worth living in for a majority to save a minority. To be clear, I'm not saying no action should be taken, but the benefits need to be measured objectively. 

We've also just opened the door and walked into a dystopian nightmare police state with severely compromised freedom, lapping it down eagerly and asking for more. I'm not particularly comfortable with that, it concerns me greatly. Not the immediate effect, but that it shows governments how easy it is to scare entire populations into asking to have their freedoms forcibly removed. 

On a lighter note, Belarus just had a "You think Trump is a moron? Hold my beer" moment. The Belarusian president claims the virus isn't there because "you can't see it flying around, can you?". You couldn't write it. 

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

At risk of sounding a lil too dark here - so if i offend anyone sorry!

how many of us are male, mid 40's to early 50's -    so already in prime heart attack time!

lil overweight ( i am) - not great

less than perfect fitness........ i dont even score close to fit

pre existing conditions... actually ok here yay

 

so our chances of seeing out year arent 100% before even take in normal life like road accident etc,  personally i would rather get back to work and just be a tad more sensible about precautions like hand wash etc than sit on rear for many weeks.

 

seen enough people who when that moment has come its literally a lotery in make it or not , am fairly realistic that my affairs are in order and a normal day to day life is more relaxing than sitting at home waiting to see if this gets me.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Of the more than 500 people known to be hospitalized, 18% were 45-54 years and 20% were aged 20-44 years. - from a sample.
 

So while it may not kill you if you are bit younger it will potentially give you a damn good kicking. While flu doesn’t help with underlying conditions but idea it’s all people at deaths door anyway I don’t think is correct. I don’t think in normal time ice rinks get filled up as the mortuaries are overflowing....

In countries that have poor or overwhelmed heath care that number is going to get higher. 

There are some reasonable numbers and models out there now and looking at the data lockdown is the way to go. Yes economy is important but how high is the body pile that is okay ? A few are young parents, are you going the explain that to their kids ?

It’s more than being a tad sensible (Boris thought he was being sensible he has it now). This is a virus that is good at spreading.

I’m glad you have everything in order and  you are happy with increased risk but it’s not just you. It’s the Doctors killing themselves trying to save the 10,20,100 people you infected, pretty sure they aren’t very onboard with this.

why do you think they are so upset when they see people breaking the lockdown ?

its like in WW2 - if a bomb gets me it gets me so I’m not going to bother with doing the blackout .......  

Yes it’s tough at the moment but we need hold it together. 

 

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It will not alter the overall death rate figures (at the time of me writing this) because people are not at work and doing sports etc. So deaths by "other causes" have decreased. No mystery there !

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

That's the point. All we are doing is moving the surge back. 

That's all.

Yes, the overall total may not be significantly higher than other years, but it's the spread of the deaths over the year.

If we lose the NHS, we lose a huge number of people in the future.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

@monkie I too had been looking up some European mortality rates after seeing the latest numbers on last nights panic report news. As bad as it is for those involved, the numbers today are no where near significant. One Italian expert went against the mainstream and stated that he thought the current death toll was mostly an 'advance' of this years expected mortality and the end result would not be significantly higher. Again, this is not to say it's not a tragedy on a personal level. But so are all the traffic accidents every weekend.

Furthermore, I don't believe China had a succesfull lockdown. They let it get out, tried to cover it up an then spun some excellent PR on it. No way they tested their huge population, so the virus is definitely still out there.

I'm also reminded of a quote from Assassin's Creed: "we don't need to invest to control the population, we won ... people no longer care about their civil liberties ... they're content to follow"

A bit dystopian, but it hs me more worried than the virus itself...

Filip

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

My friends in Johannesburg and Durban have thier guns loaded,  live in homes surrounded with razor wire and have guards armed with AK47s sat at the end of thier road, (until they decide not to protect rich whitey and disappear).  They won't be getting 80% of thier wages paid, the healthcare service will soon go under, the electricity gets turned off twice a day, thier currency is tanking after a getting a junk rating, no pensions, a decent portion of the population wouldn't mind seeing them turfed out of thier homes, police corruption is rife and to top it all they are banned from buying booze and fags.

I'll take our distopian state thanks.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Jesus, that's awful!

What's the TV like? Once that's okay, no one will notice.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Eightpot said:

My friends in Johannesburg and Durban have thier guns loaded,  live in homes surrounded with razor wire and have guards armed with AK47s sat at the end of thier road, (until they decide not to protect rich whitey and disappear).  They won't be getting 80% of thier wages paid, the healthcare service will soon go under, the electricity gets turned off twice a day, thier currency is tanking after a getting a junk rating, no pensions, a decent portion of the population wouldn't mind seeing them turfed out of thier homes, police corruption is rife and to top it all they are banned from buying booze and fags.

I'll take our distopian state thanks.

Indeed. There does need to be control over "civil liberties" otherwise where will we be ? I always try to do what is right thing ...…. morally right ……..in any case, as I am sure most of us on here do, but there are those out there who do not, or have a very skewed idea of what is right.

Without any controls there is anarchy

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Gazzar said:

Jesus, that's awful!

What's the TV like? Once that's okay, no one will notice.

 

Telly's ok and they can get netflix so not a total loss until the power goes off halfway through a film..

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 hours ago, Anderzander said:

Perhaps he’s the archetype and we just have the traits ? 

Have you read the Invisible Library series? Nige, I name you as Fae!

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The country is all still there and we see the double edges sword that is government control. I too am fine with high levels of Government control in the case of a pandemic. Sometimes threats are over stated to help get support for such measures - this is not one of those times.

Without lock down the virus infection doubles every 3 days. Doubles. 
 

1 week to show symptoms, a week for complications, 2 weeks to move to icu and I think 2-4 weeks for a bad outcome there. That’s how far behind current numbers are.

so it’s all very well saying numbers are okay at the moment but much bigger numbers are already in play but the effects won’t be seen until 6-8 weeks later.

i checked on the seasonal effect and it looks like a mixed bag some expecting  an effect and others not but all countries look to be on the same curve.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I do worry about the state control, there's always abuses.

But I think, and hope, that the current lot are  "freedom" types, target than "control" types.

Though, once they get a taste of power, they might get addicted.

Hope not, don't fancy the alternative.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I am a bit reluctant to reply, but the 12 weeks lock down time and last night 6 months time seems all completely made up to me: this is over once a vaccine is produced and the entire population has been vaccinated. How long that takes is anyone's guess, but a year seems likely. At the moment it is even not clear whether people that have had the virus are actually immune.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Expert’s estimations are the ones  I’m looking at (WHO has a WhatsApp and text service that can be subscribed to).

The vaccine is about a year to start with roll out.

As for lockdown length we need to see the numbers and where the antibody and corona testing gets to. So that length is a little in variable but 6 months with phased approach  looks about right to me. If you use the link on models above someone posted that gives a good idea of the data being used. 

The Governments are pretty much using existing powers in times of crisis. I don’t think we are giving much away and I don’t think any of the powers are very exciting from an addiction to power point of view.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, Daan said:

I am a bit reluctant to reply, but the 12 weeks lock down time and last night 6 months time seems all completely made up to me: this is over once a vaccine is produced and the entire population has been vaccinated. How long that takes is anyone's guess, but a year seems likely. At the moment it is even not clear whether people that have had the virus are actually immune.

The uncomfortable truth is that NO ONE knows yet

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
58 minutes ago, smallfry said:

The uncomfortable truth is that NO ONE knows yet

No one knows for sure, it’s not total guesswork though and the confidence is growing all the time with more data.

I’m not uncomfortable about it.  Vaccine is 6-18 months and some sort of moderation is required until then.

UK peak is 1 week up to maybe 8 weeks away and second wave is possible.

 Plenty of people’s job is to understand infectious disease spread and I think the info is there if you find the right sources.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Vaccine is normally 12 months in peace time, so I think, governments are forcing pharmaceutical company's to cooperate with each other and I guess the government will also assist to shortcut and bend every rule in the book to get the vaccine out to the market quicker.

So probs. between 6 and 12 months in war time...Time for a poll!

Daan

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It was my understanding 12 months would be a record by quite some way for a vaccine from nothing to delivered but I don’t think  the whole  world has worked quite so hard on the same thing ever before so I could see a super fast turn around happening. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

With respect to the diagnostic testing; I have never known of several different diagnostic companies (Abbott, Roche, Altona, Bio-Rad...) develop, get FDA (emergency) approval, CE-marking and production ramped up to full scale in just a matter of weeks.

I've no idea where we are interms of a vaccine. I haven't heard of a vaccine for any types of coronavirus so it might be a little more involved as we do have tests for the different strains of coronavirus, but I am not in a position to say for sure about a vaccine.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
19 hours ago, smallfry said:

Similar in a way to tuberculosis. 

It has no similarities to TB. TB is a bacterial infection that your body can't kill.  Without antibiotics, it stays in your body forever, so you can pass it along.  Covid is a virus.  Everyone's body will kill the virus completely within two weeks and then it is gone.

Edited by Red90

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We use cookies to ensure you get the best experience. By using our website you agree to our Cookie Policy