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But they do so infection rate equals antibody rate after 28 days. 

 

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TO THE PUB!!!

 

Big announcement from the PM today including the above and much more. Hopefully this will mean the economy will start to whir back into life

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It's a fine balance though.... as much as I'd love to pop to the local for a pint and see the hospitality industry get back up on its feet (I also work in catering as well as the engineering).... we still need to be careful that this doesn't give us a spike.

 

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I think I'll just carry on as I have been for a while longer yet, I'm quite content to let others dip a toe in uncharted waters for now.

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6 minutes ago, FridgeFreezer said:

Same here - I'd love to be sat at the pub in the sunshine but nothing about the virus has actually changed.

No, but the people have been shocked into following the rules. So the basic stuff that works - washing your hands, keeping distance, not coughing in the general direction of people's faces - will apply. And that appears to be good enough to lead a somewhat normal life with minimal impact.

You don't need to go all American and completely forget it exists. There's a good middle road available.

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Yup, as much as the government may appear to have bungled much of the handling of this, basic hygiene is all that is really required.

Also, the government have thousands of people all furiously working away in the background, very, very bright people making the best choices for the country..... I think I would likely trust them more than what faceache groupthink or even I might think about whether it is safe to do X. I am sure they have considered it far more than I, or any other individual member of the public.

 

 

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You guys really should not be too cocky about doing a good job with nearly twice the per capita deaths as the US and second only to Belgium in the world. Probably below Spain though as they are making up the data now.

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1 hour ago, elbekko said:

No, but the people have been shocked into following the rules.

Sorry but a hell of a lot of them have now decided they're bored of it and are pretty much carrying on as if it's been magically cured. Every time I've had to go out to get supplies there's been more than enough people totally ignoring the guidelines.

I've no desire to contract galloping lung-rot even if it's "only" 1 in 1000 chance of being nasty.

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36 minutes ago, Bowie69 said:

Yup, as much as the government may appear to have bungled much of the handling of this, basic hygiene is all that is really required.

Also, the government have thousands of people all furiously working away in the background, very, very bright people making the best choices for the country..... I think I would likely trust them more than what faceache groupthink or even I might think about whether it is safe to do X. I am sure they have considered it far more than I, or any other individual member of the public.

 

 

Exactly this. I completely agree we need to be careful to avoid having a second spike but if they feel the measures put in place are enough keep R below 1 then I am sure they have considered that carefully.

Everyone has the right however to continue to socially distance to a greater extent than what is required per the rules and we should all respect that. Equally if you feel safe enough to follow the latest rules then you should be equally respected.

On a personal level the chance of dying from COVID for me is  less than the chance of dying from crossing the road opposite my house so I think I will chance having a pint in the beer garden of my local with a few known people who have been following the rules up to now. I completely understand meeting in my local out in rural Suffolk is quite different to going to a pub in London.

I am also hoping that this means that the company my other half works for (maintenance for retail and restaurant sector) will be able to survive having had to commence making half (150 people) of the workforce redundant

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34 minutes ago, Red90 said:

You guys really should not be too cocky about doing a good job with nearly twice the per capita deaths as the US and second only to Belgium in the world. Probably below Spain though as they are making up the data now.

I don't think anyone was being cocky. It's also not quite that simple is it? The rules for recording deaths are not consistent globally

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5 minutes ago, L19MUD said:

The rules for recording deaths are not consistent globally

This is true, but the UK is known to be under reporting deaths, so I doubt that is a factor. The UK under reporting rate is likely similar to the US. There are most likely countries that are miles off, but if we limit the comparison to modern western countries, the conclusions are valid. Officially the UK is only second to Belgium, who is over reporting deaths.

It may all change as the US has entered wave 1.1 quite strongly.

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45 minutes ago, Red90 said:

You guys really should not be too cocky about doing a good job with nearly twice the per capita deaths as the US and second only to Belgium in the world. Probably below Spain though as they are making up the data now.

And Italy, they have stopped reporting a lot of deaths, including critically the excess deaths.

The UK is an entirely different demographic, you simply cannot compare deaths in an urbanised, very aged population that had a very light flu season, with the states where you have a  a younger population, where there is more sun and building plots are more like half an acre, compared to our 1/8th .

Look at New York, if the US was like that coast to coast, then you can imagine it being a rather different situation, and that it without the poor testing record of the US, where deaths with covid are not being recorded.

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1 minute ago, Red90 said:

the UK is known to be under reporting deaths, so I doubt that is a factor. The UK under reporting rate is likely similar to the US.

Nope, we report far more dogmatically that most nations, and we have the testing in place to ensure that happens.

The US system on the other hand....

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Excess deaths vs 5 year average is only 5.9% up this week:

Quote

The number of deaths registered in England and Wales in the week ending 12 June 2020 (Week 24) was 9,976; this was 733 lower than Week 23 and 5.9% (559 deaths) higher than the five-year average.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending12june2020

 

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23 minutes ago, FridgeFreezer said:

Sorry but a hell of a lot of them have now decided they're bored of it and are pretty much carrying on as if it's been magically cured. Every time I've had to go out to get supplies there's been more than enough people totally ignoring the guidelines.

This ...

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27 minutes ago, FridgeFreezer said:

Sorry but a hell of a lot of them have now decided they're bored of it and are pretty much carrying on as if it's been magically cured. Every time I've had to go out to get supplies there's been more than enough people totally ignoring the guidelines.

I agree that a lot of people are ignoring the guidelines, that was always going to happen and naturally compliance is going to dwindle over time as people become frustrated. I am not condoning this but the government will have taken a view on the % of compliance over time and factored that into the decisions made therefore as long as the relaxed versions of the rules and the % compliance of those do not allow R to go over 1 then the decisions are meeting what they are trying to achieve

As mentioned above nothing has changed with the virus, we are miles and miles away from having a vaccine so you just have to learn to manage it. If we all locked ourselves away for the next 2 years we would have a lot more deaths as a result of the impending economic disaster and associated poverty than  actually from the virus! No one wants that either

 

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1 hour ago, FridgeFreezer said:

Sorry but a hell of a lot of them have now decided they're bored of it and are pretty much carrying on as if it's been magically cured. Every time I've had to go out to get supplies there's been more than enough people totally ignoring the guidelines.

I've no desire to contract galloping lung-rot even if it's "only" 1 in 1000 chance of being nasty.

Well, that's the risk you run when locking people in. I'm not surprised they got sick of it. Would be better if they didn't, but hey, humans.

I'd personally rather have the 1 in 1000 risk of contracting the virus that the 1 in 1 chance of going absolutely mad when not allowed to do anything anymore.

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1 hour ago, elbekko said:

Well, that's the risk you run when locking people in. I'm not surprised they got sick of it. Would be better if they didn't, but hey, humans.

I'd personally rather have the 1 in 1000 risk of contracting the virus that the 1 in 1 chance of going absolutely mad when not allowed to do anything anymore.

And that’s fine to a degree but its the people that catch from you and people from them that then go on to a bad outcome that may find that less ideal.


 

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1 hour ago, Bowie69 said:

Nope, we report far more dogmatically that most nations, and we have the testing in place to ensure that happens.

The US system on the other hand....

The data that exists shows the UK under reported a bit worse than the US on a percentage basis.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/07/uk/coronavirus-uk-deaths-intl-gbr/index.html

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html

 

 

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2 minutes ago, mad_pete said:

 

And that’s fine to a degree but its the people that catch from you and people from them that then go on to a bad outcome that my find that less ideal.


 

This is totally true but a problem for many people COVID or not

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30 minutes ago, Red90 said:

The data that exists shows the UK under reported a bit worse than the US on a percentage basis.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/07/uk/coronavirus-uk-deaths-intl-gbr/index.html

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html

 

 

That was in April, and has since been fixed and updated with ONS data and care home deaths, fully expanded to include deaths were covid was only suspected and not confirmed by a test.

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Posted (edited)
58 minutes ago, Bowie69 said:

That was in April, and has since been fixed and updated with ONS data and care home deaths, fully expanded to include deaths were covid was only suspected and not confirmed by a test.

If the old data had been adjusted then would there not be a step change in the death trends? As far as I can see, the overall death trends in most countries show a higher spike than can be accounted for by the reported Covid death number. The US data is quite transparent and I can't see the UK being any more accurate.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

 

 

 

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Edited by Red90

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It's all detailed on the gov.uk website.

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