JLR Q2 Losses

[Gazzar]

I am skeptical on the cleverness. Few companies can deliver cleverness and long term reliability with repairability.

It's no good saving on hydrocarbons when running a vehicle if you burn up the hydrocarbons saved every few years to manufacture new things because you can't fix the old one because it's too clever.

[reb78]

1 hour ago, Gazzar said:

I am skeptical on the cleverness. Few companies can deliver cleverness and long term reliability with repairability.

Have we merged into the new defender/pretender thread?

[Gazzar]

Defenders? No time for them. Coil sprung nonsense. 

[Superpants]

I have been meaning to write a proper reply to some of these EV questions that crop up from time to time but hadn't got round to it before, but finally got round to it! 
Full disclosure- I have been working as an Engineer in the EV field since 2008 and have contributed to a really wide range of projects from the first EV homologated in Europe, to vehicles ranging from motorbikes to trains, on BEVs, hybrids and fuel cells, and from sedate last mile travel to Formula E. I'm now working for a supplier of cutting-edge EV motors and inverters.

Part 1 EVs

Batteries
Most people don't realise li-ion is a very broad term; it covers around 20 distinct battery chemistries. The cells used in EVs are NOT the same as those used in laptops and mobile devices (they are more closely related to power tool cells). The ones chosen for EVs (e.g. NMC) are typically those which are safer and have superior cycle and calendar life. Compare this with mobile phones where the energy density is the prime driver to make the product smaller and lighter, but this can be traded off against life.

Resale values
Whilst this was a barrier in the early days of production, now we have 10s of thousands of EVs on the road, there is good evidence that the batteries are lasting the design life of the vehicle with only minor levels of range reduction. Resale values in EVs, on average are in fact higher at present than ICE, retaining 48.9% of their value after three years or 36,000 miles compared to 40% for ICE. Whilst this may be buoyed slightly by current availability issues with new cars, the picture here looks very good.
https://www.carwow.co.uk/blog/do-electric-cars-depreciate#gref

Cost
In my opinion we don't need any breakthroughs in fundamental battery technology for personal transportation to reach mass EV adoption- the technical solutions are all mature enough today. Although there will continue to be developments as efficiency (as measured by range vs cost) will become a dominant factor for consumers in the next five years as every car manufacturer introduces a wider selection of vehicles into their range. The major barrier is still cost- this is slowly reducing and is less of a problem the more expensive the vehicle, hence the greater initial adoption at the premium end of the market, but any breakthroughs that reduce battery cost will have significant effects. This is why solid-state cells are of such interest as they offer big potential cost savings as the number of process steps in manufacturing a cell are reduced.

For a good background on batteries, I would highly recommend this document:
https://warwick.ac.uk/fac/sci/wmg/business/automotive_batteries_101_wmg-apc.pdf
I use this when training new staff at work.

Lifecycle
The Hummer vs Prius lifecycle analysis, and variations on a theme including the Jeep wrangler have been around since 2007 when a marketing company publicised a 'report' on a lifecycle analysis. This was debunked shortly after as it had made non-comparable assumptions between the two cars. Full details here in a contemporary report:
https://pacinst.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/hummer_vs_prius3.pdf

The reality is that all car makers do carry out Lifecycle analysis on EVs and whilst there is some variation in their conclusions, they do show significant benefit over ICE vehicles in lifecycle cost. This is improving continuously as the mix of electricity on the grid improves, the efficiency of the vehicle improves, the mass goes down and manufacturing processes are improved.

In some areas, there are significant benefits over ICEs, transmissions become significantly similar- we no longer need massively complex automatic transmissions- a simple reduction gear box, or at most two-speed gearbox is required. The motor is hugely simpler than an engine. The aftertreatment needed for the exhaust, which is now highly complex, also goes, and we therefore remove the need for platinum in this area. We do have to add an inverter, but these are becoming commoditised and simpler. The only major difference is really around the battery.

The industry is working hard both to reduce the need for rare earth metals in cells and to make sure the whole supply chain is as green and ethical as possible, including the recycling, but I am fully admit this is the area where there is furthest to go. 

Having said that it is very easy to overlook the ills of the petrochemical industry- they are both normalised now and socialised across the population- Some easy examples would be the countless wars fought where oil or gas was at least part of the reason (Gulf war, Russia's annexation of Crimea), the environmental disasters (Exxon Valdez, Niger Delta, Deepwater Horizon) and the massive energy costs of refining oil (90% efficiency = approx. 5kWh/ gallon).
https://publications.anl.gov/anlpubs/2011/01/69026.pdfWhen you look at all these other social downsides, fixing the problem of ethical mining of a relatively modest amount of lithium and rare earth metals looks like a much easier 'problem' to fix. Personally I would like to see us try and become less reliant on imports of suspect provenance when we have at least Lithium and Cobalt here in the UK and could invest in world class processing to go with it.
https://www2.bgs.ac.uk/mineralsuk/statistics/rawMaterialsForALowCarbonFuture.html#RMP
https://www2.bgs.ac.uk/mineralsuk/download/briefing_papers/batteryRawMaterial.pdf

Charging
The industry has been pretty good at getting a common charging port and protocol implemented- this started out back in 2009 when Mennekes, one of the connector manufacturers proposed an interface- we used it on the Smart ED as the first customer, and this soon became adopted as the low current (up to 32A, 3 phase) solution. The average daily mileage in the UK is around 25 miles (and this has only changed by relatively small amount over the preceding 40 years, so can be seen as relatively stable). For most people, topping this up on a domestic charge point would take no more than a few hours, and the standard charge port is adequate for average daily needs.

The high-power DC charging situation is a little more complicated, but for new cars in Europe there is a widely adopted standard- it only becomes a challenge with the very fastest charging for nominal 800V vehicles where the charge points are currently limited, but this really only is a concern for anyone who can afford a Ferrari or similar!

The use of fast chargers is largely limited to the fast trunk network, therefore whilst a lot of investment will be needed for these, they are relatively limited in number and so the challenges of bringing in a supply reasonably practical. The bulk of the charging for personal vehicles is likely to be at home or local at lower rates, and then the biggest challenge is the local grid infrastructure update. This will be needed anyway in the coming decades as we are reliant on cabling dating back to the 1930s in some cases. Interestingly in this area some of the electricity companies are installing telematics at substations and joints in networks using current sensors which then enable proactive replacement on the most heavily stressed areas of the grid first (as people connect EVs, heat-pumps and solar generation).

For part two i'll cover Hydrogen
 

[Mo Murphy]

Very interesting, I look forward to part 2 !

Mo

[Happyoldgit]

29 minutes ago, Mo Murphy said:

Very interesting, I look forward to part 2 !

Mo

Me too. 

Excellent post Mr Superpants.

[Superpants]

Thanks Guys- No problem- might be a few days before hydrogen.

[Gazzar]

Thanks. Sensible, informed input very much appreciated.

 

 

[landroversforever]

Thanks also Super-EV-Pants  

Looking forward to the H2 one too  

[missingsid]

Bah your biased!!!

 

 

 

 

Actually good info and eager to see the next installment.

[B reg 90]

Superpants,

A well written informative post. Thanks.

 

Adrian

[Superpants]

Thanks everyone!

5 hours ago, missingsid said:

Bah your biased!!!

 

 

 

 

Actually good info and eager to see the next installment.

Yup- I will be!!!!

Having had the oppurtunity to work on such a wide range of vehicles and system types has exposed me to the real engineering challanges and hopefully that means I have been able to pick up useful information to share!

[reb78]

I'm curious about that Hummer vs Prius paper. Where is the break point? Both papers talk about discrete mileage figures one arguing the Prius is too low and Hummer too high and vice versa. Someone could presumably model it as a sliding scale and at a certain point they will be equal and above/below that one will have the advantage? It sounds like there were other faults with the analysis though. 

[missingsid]

43 minutes ago, reb78 said:

I'm curious about that Hummer vs Prius paper. Where is the break point? Both papers talk about discrete mileage figures one arguing the Prius is too low and Hummer too high and vice versa. Someone could presumably model it as a sliding scale and at a certain point they will be equal and above/below that one will have the advantage? It sounds like there were other faults with the analysis though. 

Not an accurate test but Top Gear thrashed a Pius and at 70 they claimed it had as bad mpg as an M3 at the same speed.

I was due to drive one today the length of the M4 but COVID stopped play otherwise I would have first hand info.

[bishbosh]

22 hours ago, Superpants said:

I have been meaning to write a proper reply......

Pfft, substantiated facts from an informed source? That'll never catch on!

In all seriousness, very interesting reading and looking forwards to hearing your views (and some facts if you must!) on hydrogen.

One question - you say the batteries are lasting the design life of the EV. What is that design life and how does it compare to current IC vehicles' design lives?

[western]

Interesting stuff about ev's

but seems this thread has lost track of the title, maybe it needs splitting into 2 threads. 

[Anderzander]

I’m happy for it to have gone the way it did - the JLR but I shared had several strands of directions it could have gone in - and all seems a natural progression 😊

[Snagger]

On 12/15/2021 at 3:52 AM, missingsid said:

Not an accurate test but Top Gear thrashed a Pius and at 70 they claimed it had as bad mpg as an M3 at the same speed.

I was due to drive one today the length of the M4 but COVID stopped play otherwise I would have first hand info.

As I recall, the M series used a measurable amount less fuel over the distance driven hard around the track.  I thought it was an M5, not an M3, making it even more apparent how thirsty a Prius is, but I may be mistaken - it was a long time ago.

I like the idea of BEVs, and if it wasn’t for the cost, I’d be converting my 109.  It’s worth having a look on FB for Don Incol and his Lightweight and Dave Budge and his company “Jaunt”, which is using some of Don’s experience to make beautifully restored and converted SII and SIII EVs for hire to the public and tourists.  He plans to sell kits later, when they have built up a few of their own vehicles and ironed it all out.  Faster, quieter, smoother on the transmission, more torque, next to no maintenance…. What’s not to love?  They are retaining the gear box and transfer box.  Don made several videos showing how essential it is to keep them in most retrofit cases, not just for character reasons but also because you’d need an enormous and very expensive motor if you Don have reduction gears, but would top out at a low road speed if you just had the one ratio.  He shows it stalling on some steep hillocks in third low, proving the need for the full original transmission with reasonably sized motors, but that keeps the conversion easier too, anyway.

[reb78]

5 hours ago, Snagger said:

As I recall, the M series used a measurable amount less fuel over the distance driven hard around the track.  I thought it was an M5, not an M3, making it even more apparent how thirsty a Prius is, but I may be mistaken - it was a long time ago.

I like the idea of BEVs, and if it wasn’t for the cost, I’d be converting my 109.  It’s worth having a look on FB for Don Incol and his Lightweight and Dave Budge and his company “Jaunt”, which is using some of Don’s experience to make beautifully restored and converted SII and SIII EVs for hire to the public and tourists.  He plans to sell kits later, when they have built up a few of their own vehicles and ironed it all out.  Faster, quieter, smoother on the transmission, more torque, next to no maintenance…. What’s not to love?  They are retaining the gear box and transfer box.  Don made several videos showing how essential it is to keep them in most retrofit cases, not just for character reasons but also because you’d need an enormous and very expensive motor if you Don have reduction gears, but would top out at a low road speed if you just had the one ratio.  He shows it stalling on some steep hillocks in third low, proving the need for the full original transmission with reasonably sized motors, but that keeps the conversion easier too, anyway.

This makes a lot of sense to me. I would think (in my capacity as someone who knows very little about EVs!) that an 'off the shelf' kit could easily be made and sold if for all of the series and defender vehicles on here. Complexity would presumably increase in terms of what needs to talk to an ECU from the TD5 onwards. But, a motor of sufficient size, different 'engine' mount and bell/flywheel housing options to link it to various gearboxes, with associated batteries and the necessary control units for them (so its not a heath robinson set of wiring thrown together dangerously but more a kit to follow instructions and fit) could work quite well?

I asked ages back if it was as simple as bolting a motor to the gearbox and everyone said 'no, you dont need the gearbox', but what Snagger says above makes more sense to my brain, it might just be that some gears are rarely used but add a load more versatility when you do need them?

(plus i have 3 phase, so bunging a decent charging circuit in the yard on the outside of the workshed isnt a great issue!)

Edited December 16, 2021 by reb78

[missingsid]

When the time comes to remove all ICE powered vehicles from the country I would convert the S1 to electricity but wonder about wading.

[Bowie69]

Motors and electronics are phenomenally well sealed, wouldn't expect it to be a problem in all honesty.

 

[Snagger]

In answer to Reb, the guys running these converted SIIs and IIIs in Australia (they’re well ahead of the game there) find 3rd high good for road acceleration but very busy and speed limited, but 4th high gives a reasonable cruise with a standard transmission.  In road driving, they seem to only use 3rd and 4th.  That is using motors like the Netgear Hyper9 of transplant from the Nissan Leaf (a popular source for the entire system of motor, controller, charger, battery and BMS for conversions).  They’re still not driving wildly fast with those set ups, but should get comparable performance to a Tdi retrofit.  9” DC motors would seem to be the norm for these sorts of vehicle weights.  But they are insistent that the gear box is needed, especially for off-road or towing.

Many of these motors are sealed and would be better suited to wading than many ICE engines.  Tesla motors are used for some of the high end conversions, but they aren’t well sealed - look at the flood damaged vehicles seen and stripped in the Rich Rebuilds YouTube videos for proof of that.  So, you would need to be careful about what you specify.  I don’t know how well sealed the Nissan Leaf stuff is (I’d imagine fairly mediocre), but the Hyper9 is totally sealed.

[reb78]

I guess being able to use 4th a lot makes it easy on the gearbox.

I just think our vehicles in particular are going to be the easy ones to convert. There are places that batteries could be located without affecting any space inside the car at all and the engine bay lends itself to easy installation of a motor. If someone could invest in the R&D I would have thought there was a fairly large market in LR world (I mean old LR, not the new fangled disco/rr ranges...)?

[L19MUD]

https://www.twistedautomotive.com/electric/?gclid=CjwKCAiAh_GNBhAHEiwAjOh3ZDeiQii0OoHqlF78YHKMOIBJFkDsQ7geVd-OU2TVJQQSGSt1iNeEuRoCQUkQAvD_BwE

 

Twisted have something already although I suspect the price will be well out of range of most people. There is no indication of price on the website

[reb78]

11 minutes ago, L19MUD said:

https://www.twistedautomotive.com/electric/?gclid=CjwKCAiAh_GNBhAHEiwAjOh3ZDeiQii0OoHqlF78YHKMOIBJFkDsQ7geVd-OU2TVJQQSGSt1iNeEuRoCQUkQAvD_BwE

 

Twisted have something already although I suspect the price will be well out of range of most people. There is no indication of price on the website

Haha. Yes, price is important. I thought £1000 was a lot for a 200tdi conversion back when they were common! I imagine its quite niche currently and will never be 'cheap' but hopefully will become affordable.