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mad_pete

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mad_pete last won the day on March 23

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About mad_pete

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  1. Looks like this system has an adapter so the spring fits in existing mounts
  2. I had a little trouble following it but I think there is still some quite big numbers of people who die from it who wouldn’t have died otherwise in there. I think taking a really big number and saying maybe a third of that didn’t need to die is still a lot of people that don’t need to die.
  3. Hopefully the only thing that changes is anti Vaxers now see why vaccines are good (maybe throw out a bit less co2 overall as well). its going to be some tough times but once we have antibody tests and vaccines things will start returning to normal and then economy will start picking up again. if we are lucky we will ditch GDP as a measure, have a greater appreciation for life and maybe get a better in country manufacturing base longer term.
  4. It was my understanding 12 months would be a record by quite some way for a vaccine from nothing to delivered but I don’t think the whole world has worked quite so hard on the same thing ever before so I could see a super fast turn around happening.
  5. No one knows for sure, it’s not total guesswork though and the confidence is growing all the time with more data. I’m not uncomfortable about it. Vaccine is 6-18 months and some sort of moderation is required until then. UK peak is 1 week up to maybe 8 weeks away and second wave is possible. Plenty of people’s job is to understand infectious disease spread and I think the info is there if you find the right sources.
  6. Expert’s estimations are the ones I’m looking at (WHO has a WhatsApp and text service that can be subscribed to). The vaccine is about a year to start with roll out. As for lockdown length we need to see the numbers and where the antibody and corona testing gets to. So that length is a little in variable but 6 months with phased approach looks about right to me. If you use the link on models above someone posted that gives a good idea of the data being used. The Governments are pretty much using existing powers in times of crisis. I don’t think we are giving much away and I don’t think any of the powers are very exciting from an addiction to power point of view.
  7. The country is all still there and we see the double edges sword that is government control. I too am fine with high levels of Government control in the case of a pandemic. Sometimes threats are over stated to help get support for such measures - this is not one of those times. Without lock down the virus infection doubles every 3 days. Doubles. 1 week to show symptoms, a week for complications, 2 weeks to move to icu and I think 2-4 weeks for a bad outcome there. That’s how far behind current numbers are. so it’s all very well saying numbers are okay at the moment but much bigger numbers are already in play but the effects won’t be seen until 6-8 weeks later. i checked on the seasonal effect and it looks like a mixed bag some expecting an effect and others not but all countries look to be on the same curve.
  8. Of the more than 500 people known to be hospitalized, 18% were 45-54 years and 20% were aged 20-44 years. - from a sample. So while it may not kill you if you are bit younger it will potentially give you a damn good kicking. While flu doesn’t help with underlying conditions but idea it’s all people at deaths door anyway I don’t think is correct. I don’t think in normal time ice rinks get filled up as the mortuaries are overflowing.... In countries that have poor or overwhelmed heath care that number is going to get higher. There are some reasonable numbers and models out there now and looking at the data lockdown is the way to go. Yes economy is important but how high is the body pile that is okay ? A few are young parents, are you going the explain that to their kids ? It’s more than being a tad sensible (Boris thought he was being sensible he has it now). This is a virus that is good at spreading. I’m glad you have everything in order and you are happy with increased risk but it’s not just you. It’s the Doctors killing themselves trying to save the 10,20,100 people you infected, pretty sure they aren’t very onboard with this. why do you think they are so upset when they see people breaking the lockdown ? its like in WW2 - if a bomb gets me it gets me so I’m not going to bother with doing the blackout ....... Yes it’s tough at the moment but we need hold it together.
  9. It’s not a fast mutator as I understand it so immunity should hold as should the vaccine. The current view is the weather isn’t going to help unfortunately. I think US and Africa are going to have some tough times coming up. I hope I’m wrong.
  10. You can rest assured I have put a great deal of thought into this. So while it is true once’s cases are gone they are gone but how do you know it’s really gone ? The incubation period is 5-10 days and some people show no symptoms. People are infectious without symptoms and super spreaders can infect up to 10 people. So that makes it harder. My last paragraph says you can test and isolate but you have to stay on top of it and keep that going until the vaccine. Strict test and isolate is the first phase of the virus response (Containment) so it’s like being back at the start.
  11. They are right we have been slow but once the lockdown finishes people can still catch it so the same issues exist. The virus remains out there waiting. China is now effectively importing cases as people come back from other places for example. You are going back to the start of the outbreak to a degree. If you can test and isolate that might be okay but you need to be able to stay on top of it with that approach.
  12. I agree, people are saying the sooner we get locked down the sooner we get through it, but lockdown is to draw it out and flatten the curve. The spread rate is exponential, the incubation period is 5 days or more and then another 2 weeks to get complications. So applying the lock down brakes now wont take effect for a couple of weeks. So heath service can cope now but it’s all still going up for the next couple of weeks. Then we hold but there isn’t much of an exit strategy until the vaccine this time next year. Those that have been infected and have the antibody test go back to work and at risk people stay at home still. China is starting to ease restrictions but with 60% immunity it’s all possible to get a second wave. if the testing and control is really good that may be manageable and prevented.
  13. Human nature covers both sensible reasonable considerate action and selfish idiotic action. By all means do activities (I certainly am) , reading, planning, sensible exercise, light tidying. Chances are you do run into a job that is better with two, so all possible safety measures aren’t open to you, so just stop right there and don’t do it move on to something else. Be the sensible human nature. I’ve got a couple of cupboards that could do with being downstairs. Am I going to move them this weekend (or anytime soon)? Hell no.
  14. Yeah I know, it’s just 3 weeks as that seems manageable and then once we are in the groove just 3 weeks more and so on. Like at a restaurant when it’s just 10 minutes until a table is free and then just a little more. Still a Doctor coming off another 12 hour shift dealing with multiple deaths isn’t going to want to be spending time stitching people up that couldn’t put them first when considering which activities needed doing.
  15. why are you “bound to tackle stuff on your own rather than waiting for a mate ?” Just don’t do the job now - most Land Rover jobs take years anyway - just let them wait a couple more months. If it is a critical job (it isn’t) then phone a mate while you do it or WhatsApp from your phone. We have plans in place that describe who lives and who dies in the event there is a shortage of ventilators. People need to wake up and take this very seriously and not be doing jobs they don’t need to be doing. All you need to do is sit on the sofa for 3 weeks to save lives.
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