Future of cars on British Roads?

[Rich_P]

I understand that as time goes by, the tools available to the home mechanic increases as vehicles gradually become more sophisticated. Take code reading and rectification as one mere example.

But having now paid attention to what equipment is fitted to the higher end models of many cars, I am not sure if people will own these cars in the future like people own cars from the 1990s and prior? Would the added gizmos like bluetooth, satnav, built-in dvd players and whatnot eventually put people off from owning these cars because they either no longer work or are long since superseded and cannot be easily removed? A 1980s and 1990s car can easily have a modern stereo fitted, but you're unlikely to be able to easily replace the built-in satnav, bluetooth and dvd players in (what is currently) a modern car come 10 years down the line, right?

Doesn't this mean that we may see an increasing void between "easier" fixable cars (prior to the fitting of gadgets mentioned above) and current (now or in the future) cars, not because of developing technologies for how the car works but because of all the extras fitted that become obsolete and difficult to replace?

OR will people just continue like they always have, and just ignore all the currently-fun/cool equipment in cars when it all stops working or becomes unusable?

What do you think?

[Landy'd Gentry]

Rather than these aforementioned cars just being scapped etc, companies will develope mods around these 'obsolete' technologies.

It's not too dissimilar to when cars went from ladder frame chassis with coach work, to monocoque.

As technology progresses, people will find mods around the 'obsolete' or redundant technology.

[hobson]

I've always thought; you can own a landrover for fifty years plus, and if you spend a fair bit of time maintaining it, putting new parts on and getting greasy hands it'll run great all those years.

or you can buy a modern car, which will never need maintenance due to higher tolerances etc and you'll never get greasy hands, but after about ten years everything will go kaput, then it's knackered and ready for the scrapyard.

i think modern cars with all their gadgets are great for those who want them, but even looking back ten or fifteen years at say an M5 BMW or an S-Class Merc, fantastic, luxurious cars in their day, but how many are still on the road from that era? becuase people are more than happy to be part of a throwaway society.

but look at some old chaps who still run Wolsleys and MGB's, because to them, thats the essence of motoring and they know their car intimately, and look after it and treasure it.

i definitely think there'll be two camps, and i know which one i'll be in, but i think we'll be a camp which gets gradually smaller as the years roll by...

[Turbocharger]

I think the "mainstream" will end up 'renting mobility' rather than owning cars. We don't really buy a mobile phone any more, we just get one rolled up in the contract price and then get a new one every 12 months or so. This means the manufacturers sell more units and your car isn't trapped with an 8-track/cassette/CD/iPod connection for too long.

I also think there will be a small core of people who enjoy their older cars, and hopefully we'll be a small enough minority that they'll ignore us (or concede free road tax to >25yr cars etc as a votewinner )

[FridgeFreezer]

What LG said - it's been seen before with every advance supposedly being beyond the backyard or home mechanic, but people always keep up.

Once you're over the fear factor, electronics make it easier, not harder, and the gear is only getting cheaper and more readily available (and more and more open source stuff is popping up) - all it takes is for one person to crack the problem then everyone can dive in.

The fact you can download an OBD app for your phone says something about where it's going and just how easy it is with the amount of spare computing we have kicking round these days.

Look at Megasquirt - an open-source DIY built ECU that can run anything from a lawnmower to a mutliple-rotor wankel engine, for ~£250. People used to ditch the EFI and bolt carbs on, now it's more attractive to go the other way, even on engines which were around before the microchip.

As stuff is progressing and people are getting more tech-savvy, it's getting harder for manufacturers to avoid things like standardised communications (OBD, CANBUS) partly through consumer/regulatory pressure and partly because sticking to the industry standard is cheaper and quicker to develop than defining a new custom thing.

I reckon the future's pretty cool really, it's just the toolbox is a bit different.

[Landy'd Gentry]

My daughter's IT teacher was a real petrol head who loved modding his cars. He knew I had a Land Rover, thinking it was a 3.5efi, and suggested he could 'remap' the ecu.

I said, "Sure, it's a 1958 SII, so just add beer to the driver for a re-map!"

Some mods are good, and sometimes, simplicity is even better!

It all adds to the spice of life!

[missingsid]

I've always thought; you can own a landrover for fifty years plus, and if you spend a fair bit of time maintaining it, putting new parts on and getting greasy hands it'll run great all those years.

or you can buy a modern car, which will never need maintenance due to higher tolerances etc and you'll never get greasy hands, but after about ten years everything will go kaput, then it's knackered and ready for the scrapyard.

i think modern cars with all their gadgets are great for those who want them, but even looking back ten or fifteen years at say an M5 BMW or an S-Class Merc, fantastic, luxurious cars in their day, but how many are still on the road from that era? becuase people are more than happy to be part of a throwaway society.

but look at some old chaps who still run Wolsleys and MGB's, because to them, thats the essence of motoring and they know their car intimately, and look after it and treasure it.

i definitely think there'll be two camps, and i know which one i'll be in, but i think we'll be a camp which gets gradually smaller as the years roll by...

As an owner of the previous model 400BHP M5 when it was current, I loved it.

But when it was offered back to me by the person who bought it I declined.

As a current car with a warranty it was fantastic but needed trips to the shop to adjust/replace the millions of sensors every now and again.

Without a warranty it is a fast saloon waiting to turn into an unusable object in the drive that is too expensive to repair.

Marc.

[Rich_P]

FF, you seem to have focused on the workings of the car. As mentioned in my post, I understand that the "toolbox" will change and adapt to suit the home mechanic. The items I'm referring to are the accessories, and whether or not their very-short life time (compared to the car they are built into) will put people off these motor vehicles in the future?

I think the "mainstream" will end up 'renting mobility' rather than owning cars. We don't really buy a mobile phone any more, we just get one rolled up in the contract price and then get a new one every 12 months or so. This means the manufacturers sell more units and your car isn't trapped with an 8-track/cassette/CD/iPod connection for too long.

Isn't that what is done already with financing of car purchases?

[Retroanaconda]

I think the problem is the mindset has changed. Years ago a car was bought with the intention of keeping it for a long time, these days they are seen as a changeable commodity. You just have to look at the wealth of people driving about in their 10 reg vehicles because it makes them look like they're so successful because they have a 'new' car, and they have to have one every five years at the most otherwise what will people think 'oh look at that poor person, they can't even afford a new car'.

Personally I'm proud to drive around in any of my vehicles, the newest of which is 10 years old this year, and I wouldn't really want anything newer. I'd rather keep these ones on the road than drive one of the boring, ugly, over-engineered, and annoyingly 'stylish' cars that we see being churned out onto the roads these days.

[jeremy996]

I drive old cars, it's just what I do. A 38 year old Morgan and a 21 year old LR 110 CSW. There is absolutely no ICE in the Morgan and the LR has a basic CD stereo with line-in plug. I have an after-market satnav and an iPod which get dropped into whichever vehicle I am using.

There is now a cottage industry fixing old ICE now, but the cost can be eye-watering. Even the ghastly vacuum tube dashes, (early Maestro/Montego, AM Lagonda), can be fixed but the bill can be on a par with an engine rebuild.

The standardisation that is happening now, (OBD, CanBus), should make life easier in the future for major systems, it's the minor ones that will prove unfixable.

I think more people will choose a car for life, the Morgan is virtually entailed to my son. My LR is intended to be kept 20-30 years. Consumerism is an economic dead end for me, so using old cars are part of "Reduce, Reuse, Recycle".

[Landy'd Gentry]

Not all of us are fortunate enough to walk into a dealership, sign on the dotted line for a new car, and pay outright.

That given, I fail to see the point of keeping up with the Jones'

Cars depreciate in value

Loans have interest on them

value of asset goes down, debt goes up!

I have seen toomany of my friends / collegues, go out, buy a car on finance, and then have to fork out on repairs etc, whilst still paying hundreds of pounds a month for an item that is loosing its value. Or worse still, they are involved in a crash, and the insurance company payout straight to the finance company, not covering the outstanding amount leaving said person without a vehicle, and a debt!

I'd rather drive a banger, till I can afford something better. I waited along time till I got my first Land Rover, and am fortunate to own two. (the third had to go!)

I especially enjoyed picking up some friends of mine from a certain hotel George W uses in hampshire in my 1988 110!

The look of the staff on the door as I pulled up!

I do alot of the work on my fleet, mainly because I can.

Rant over

[FridgeFreezer]

As a current car with a warranty it was fantastic but needed trips to the shop to adjust/replace the millions of sensors every now and again.

Without a warranty it is a fast saloon waiting to turn into an unusable object in the drive that is too expensive to repair.

All this means is that you don't understand it or how to repair it cheaply, any more than a BMW tech with his laptop would know how to rebuild a Series carburettor. Sensors are only sensors, and wires are only wires, and it can all be made to work with other bits pretty easily if anyone came out from behind the sofa and tinkered with it. Unfortunately the old school with spanners don't often have an affinity for electronics or computers and so there's this whole black magic thing built up around anything that needs more than one wire to make it run.

Perhaps I should just shut up and let everyone believe this b*ll*cks so that I can have my pick of dirt cheap cars which are "beyond repair" in a few years.

[plasticbadger]

I agree with FF, I started out my motor tinkering life on my Dad's Trimuph, then on a string of '60's and '70's Fords. All proper nut-and-bolt cars that required no more than a small box of tools to fix.

As time moved on that magic 10 year old cheap car age did too and I bought a Mondeo with a snapped cambelt, I remember looking into the engine bay once the head was off and thinking 'Christ what have I done' it took me a week to get the thing running again. Within a couple of years after that I could change a Mondeo head in a couple of hours, they're only wires.

Times change, technology advances. There will always be people who buy new cars and throw them away when the warranty expires. Then there will always be people willing to learn about the technology, invest in the tools, and reap the rewards of running a 9 year car that cost less than a good night out (that 1994 Mondeo cost me £80 in 2003).

There may be an ever decreasing number of people willing to do the work themselves, but they will only get even cheaper cars!

Finally, it p@~#es me off talking to people who want a new car 'to keep their childern safe' when 7 years ago I had a car with airbags, seat belt pretensioners, side impact bars, crumple zones etc for £80....

[fozsug]

All this means is that you don't understand it or how to repair it cheaply, any more than a BMW tech with his laptop would know how to rebuild a Series carburettor. Sensors are only sensors, and wires are only wires, and it can all be made to work with other bits pretty easily if anyone came out from behind the sofa and tinkered with it. Unfortunately the old school with spanners don't often have an affinity for electronics or computers and so there's this whole black magic thing built up around anything that needs more than one wire to make it run.

Perhaps I should just shut up and let everyone believe this b*ll*cks so that I can have my pick of dirt cheap cars which are "beyond repair" in a few years.

With FF on this, being and"old school" spanners man, i bit the bullet and did a little reading and bobs youre uncle, electronics isnt scary!

[mike4444244]

There are loads of old BMWs and mercs around because unlike british cars, they came out of the factory with some underseal on, and now you can buy a proper RWD german saloon with all the toys, that is as reliable as the tide, for approx £4.95!

[hobson]

I think this also comes down to what people enjoy doing, granted we've no doubt all had to fix a car at some point when we didn't want to, but we all know owning older cars (particularly Landrovers!) means more tinkering and maintaining.

Personally i enjoy gettiing under/over the 110 with the spanners and socket set to adjust and replace bits as needed, it gives me a sense of achievement and satisfaction. i enjoy the feeling of tools and nuts and bolts, even down to appreciating the quality of the tools i use.

i can't say the same of electrics and electronics, i'll have a go at them when really needed, but their not my favourite bit to play with, i find wiring very fiddly and annoying! (but thats possibly down to my huge sausage fingers!)

But bear in mind i'm not a huge fan of gadgets and 'over technological-ising' things anway, but thats my little opinion, and there are obviously plenty of people who feel the exact opposite way!

that said, it took me a good few years as a youngster to learn about tools and how basic things worked, who's to say in a few years i might finally figure out how to work electronics?!

all IMHO of course...

[Ratty43]

It's all well and good to say that electronics are only wires etc, but the cutting edge parts that do not find their way into the mainstream become a lost art. I used to drive an Jaguar XJS that would occasionally try and tell me things through it's display, I was chatting to a chap who was a research electrical engineer at Marconi when my car was built and he asked to see the wiring diagram for it (an A3 fold out with very small writing), after a full day of trying to get his head around it he admitted that little of it made any sense to him. The entire system was of course repairable, but only by Jaguar or another specialist which put things out of reach for most people who buy older cars.

[simonr]

I think, as FF and others have said, so long as there is a market, people will reverse engineer the electronics and make replacements.

Although the wiring schemes for modern vehicles is complex, the individual systems are still replaceable. Megasquirt and it's successors will replace just about any ENGINE control system. low cost microcontrollers can replace most of the sub control units for things like windows, locks etc - and there are bound to be after-market replacements for ABS & TC once we get to a point where there are no reliable OE parts available. However, this will only be true for vehicles, like Land Rover which will last long enough and have a loyal following.

As fridge said, the future is bright - you'll just have a different toolbox and skill-set. Look at the way just about everyone is a computer expert these days when 30 years ago the number of home computers was in the tens or hundreds (I didn't get my ZX80 until August!). To most folk (like my parents) computers were frightening and to be avoided at all cost.

ECU's, once a frightening, unreliable things are now every-day items that hold no fear for many car enthusiasts. The same will become true of most other in car electronics.

If not, I look forward to the day I can buy cool, electronics ridden vehicles and spend my evenings hacking them to do other stuff. I found a web page about how to run Linux on your car sat-nav!

From a different point of view, I recently helped a chap I know who wanted to make the speedo and tacho work on a classic sports car. The internals had mostly rusted away and to re-build them would cost more than the car. Instead, we glued a RC servo to the reverse of the dials to move the pointers and used a microcontroller to pick up engine RPM and pulses from a prop shaft pickup to translate these into movements of the pointers. I resisted the temptation to make the pointers do other cool things like moving like windscreen wipers or telling the time by pointing at numbers - but it's all possible. The current technology can be used to keep current classics on the road as it will future classics.

Si

[Landy'd Gentry]

All I can say, is thank God for Haynes etc.

I still have one for my old Datsun Cherry (died 1990) Skoda Estelle (yes I had two and they were good fun) etc

I enjoy weilding a spanner and 'tinkering'

Alot of my neighbours now ask me to lookat their cars etc as most haven't got a clue how it works or where the oil or water goes!

If it hadnt been for a pin costing 10p snapping in the gearbox of my first car, and the garage charging me several hundreds of pounds to fix it, I still would be one of those people who rely on garages to do the simplist of tasks.

Top Gear doesn't help either. beratting the chap who will have his head under the bonnet as opposed to sitting with his laptop remapping.

Good old fashioned spannering gives such a sennse of acheivement / smug pride. (it also save shed loads of cash!)

[missingsid]

With FF on this, being and"old school" spanners man, i bit the bullet and did a little reading and bobs youre uncle, electronics isnt scary!

Before my car was collected from the dealer (second hand but in warrenty) the final check reveald that nearly all of the camshaft position sensors had failed and had to be replaced. This was something stupid like 3 sensors per camshaft and four camshafts.

The VANOS vairable cam timing was usualy changed every major serice as it got noisy until BMW decided not to do it anymore for any BMW VANOS engine as it was costing them a fortune.

This is not about knowledge it is about technology adding complexity and ultimately high cost to run.

Marc.

[Night Train]

I think the "mainstream" will end up 'renting mobility' rather than owning cars. We don't really buy a mobile phone any more, we just get one rolled up in the contract price and then get a new one every 12 months or so. This means the manufacturers sell more units and your car isn't trapped with an 8-track/cassette/CD/iPod connection for too long.

I also think there will be a small core of people who enjoy their older cars, and hopefully we'll be a small enough minority that they'll ignore us (or concede free road tax to >25yr cars etc as a votewinner )

I can imagine this being the norm.

First phones and now laptops are 'free' with a phone/broadband contract.

I can imagine that with 'pay as you drive' there will be 'driving contracts' to ease the cost of motoring and these will eventually have a 'free car' attached.

It could be a bit like car leasing. Pay a flat rate each month and you get all your fuel, repairs, servicing and road costs covered for a range of user types. Low user rate, through to high user rate and every 18-24 months you get a new contract and car.

Or it could be like the car sharing clubs. You pay a flat monthly rate and you can pick up any type of car at any time as required and you just pay for the fuel.

Then there will be the Land Rover, MG, Morgan, etc owners doing their own thing and being seen as eccentric!

[mad_pete]

P38s are a combination of high tech and questionable quality and they still seem to be around. Necessity is the mother of all invention

[fozsug]

[

Then there will be the Land Rover, MG, Morgan, etc owners doing their own thing and being seen as eccentric!

I think we already are