CwazyWabbit Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Came accross this when surfing the other day http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Long_Range_Forecast.html Apparently this bloke predicted the snow last winter some time back in the September. He reckons we are in for an even worse winter this year, I leave it up to the reader as to whether you believe he is a crank or not. Anyhow we could be in for plenty of quiet roads this winter all specially reserved by Land Rover for us Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simonr Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 I'm very interested in weather - amongst other things! At the end of the day, it's just another engineering problem! Most long range forecasts for this winter predict reasonable snow falls for this year / 2012 though this is the first time I've seen all the predictors brought together in one forecast and I would tend to agree that a cold winter is the most likely outcome. Long range forecasting only tends to deal in trends over wide areas whereas things like the Met Office forecast deals in specifics for local areas which are subject to much more turbulence so tend to be much shorter range. It's been interesting over the past few years how the 'old wives tale' type of weather predictions have given as good forecasts as the large scale climatic models in the longer time frames. I think this is due to the amount of energy in the atmosphere, increasing the chaos (raising the noise floor) making model based predictions less reliable. 'Old wives tale' predictors, average the indicators over long periods and tend to be less affected by high frequency noise. Although these have not got any more accurate in themselves, their accuracy has been less affected and so relatively, they are less inaccurate - if that makes any sense! Si Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hybrid_From_Hell Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 What annoys me is how hopeles the forecasters are now My real grumpy bug bear is the huge detail they go into as to what the weather was today - I mean yes thankyou I know I was F there ....DUR....what use is the forecast AFTER its happened ? and then after 10 mins of graphics and details re today, they sort of think it might be sunny, with showers maybe cloudy with spells of total eclpises maybe tommorow, and then change it 3 x before tomm comes ? When I was a Kid M Fish did the weather, and was right most of the time, nowdays either we are so worried about being sued we don't wnat to actually have a go at committing to it, or we have got worse as the whizzy graphics get whizzier. Gawd I am grumpy today Nige Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Poore Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 What annoys me is how hopeles the forecasters are now Eh? Where the hell do you see these "forecasts" they're unknown to me?! All the BBC and ITV seem to show is what the weather was like yesterday / earlier in the day, and they usually get that wrong for my neck of the woods... I did once see this legend of a forecast which informed me what the weather may be like in a few hours but to be honest I could tell that by looking out the window. If only they could tell me what it's going to be like next week... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simonr Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Statistically, the most accurate forecast for tomorrow - is that it will be much like today, particularly if yesterday was like today! It's right more often than wrong. Si Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mickeyw Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 When I was a Kid M Fish did the weather, and was right most of the time, Yep, most of the time...except for when he said there wouldn't be a hurricane back in 1987 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Poore Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Statistically, the most accurate forecast for tomorrow - is that it will be much like today, particularly if yesterday was like today! It's right more often than wrong. Si Don't quite apply down this neck of the woods (very South-West Wales) since we tend to deal with most of the stuff off the Atlantic. However if you're sufficiently high up you can usually see what tomorrow'll be like . On which note it looks like it might be dry for the rest of the day so that'll mean off down to the woods in the 110 to join the digger, tractor and dumper truck to make some mess in the various lanes we're rebuilding... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L19MUD Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Where is BogMonster? He will tell you that weather forecasts are pointless as the Falklands can experience 4 seasons of weather in a day!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
disco_al Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Where is BogMonster? He will tell you that weather forecasts are pointless as the Falklands can experience 4 seasons of weather in a day!! bit like wales then....... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Poore Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 bit like wales then....... Very much like Wales... Most changeable day I've experienced in the last few years was supervising a Duke of Edinburgh Expedition around the Sarn Helen area and had snow, rain, sun, sleet, thunderstorms, fog, more thunderstorms and finally "April showers" all in the space of 12h Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CwazyWabbit Posted August 1, 2011 Author Share Posted August 1, 2011 ... Most long range forecasts for this winter predict reasonable snow falls for this year / 2012 though this is the first time I've seen all the predictors brought together in one forecast and I would tend to agree that a cold winter is the most likely outcome. ...... Si I agree, I have seen a lot of the things he mentions mentioned in isolation before, but as you say first time I have seen all in one place. Will be interesting to revisit this thread in November/December time and see what the outcome actually is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tufty Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Red sky at night - shepherd's delight; red sky in morning - shepherd's warning. I find that to be at least as accurate as anything else. I can't remember the last time a red sky was followed by a horrible day! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simonr Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Another one, "Oak before Ash, we're in for a splash - Ash before Oak, we're in for a soak" usually works quite well! Si Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bushwhacker Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 If you really want to know what the weather is doing just look out the window and it will be doing what ever it is doing at that time. Extremely accurate i'd say Snow = offroad on the road. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mickeyw Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Red sky at night - shepherd's delight; red sky in morning - shepherd's warning. I find that to be at least as accurate as anything else. I can't remember the last time a red sky was followed by a horrible day! And to think my Dad used to tell me a red sky at night meant the barn's alight Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G4FUJ Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 I find the long range forecast on Countryfile is reasonably accurate - and if they're unsure about what could happen during the following 5 days, they say so. Mr. Fish's (non-)hurricane - I remember it well... Though not as it swept across southern UK. I passed through it off the north coast of S. America when it was still a Tropical Depression - several hours of high winds and very heavy rain. I then tracked it's progress as it moved up towards the U.S. E coast, bounced off and headed across the Atlantic (all this on Weather Fax from Norfolk Naval radio station 'NMN'). Two days before it hit UK I phoned my folks to warn them there was a bit of a storm coming. Didn't reach them of course - track was further south... As an ex-mariner, I still have quite an interest in the weather Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Landy-Novice Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Another one, "Oak before Ash, we're in for a splash - Ash before Oak, we're in for a soak" usually works quite well! Si i dont get it! :( Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Poore Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 i dont get it! :( When they come out in leaf Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JeffR Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Jeffs forecast is this There will be weather in the winter! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Landy-Novice Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 (edited) When they come out in leaf haha, got it, thank you but does this mean i have got to watch trees for ever?? what if its a draw? the daft sod who made that up didn't think of these thing!! Edited August 2, 2011 by landy-novice Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Poore Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 haha, got it, thank you but does this mean i have got to watch trees for ever?? what if its a draw? the daft sod who made that up didn't think of these thing!! If you define for ever as a year then yes... If it's a draw then it'll pour. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BogMonster Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Where is BogMonster? He will tell you that weather forecasts are pointless as the Falklands can experience 4 seasons of weather in a day!! Correct Anybody who says they can predict the weather six months ahead is probably mad. The Met Office at home rarely manage more than 2 days ahead with any consistent accuracy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simonr Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 It's only in this scientific age that sayings like this have been discounted. However, they have evolved over thousands of years of observation and though empirical, seem credible. The trees are obviously rather more in touch with the weather than us (trees not generally living in houses) and have evolved to maximise their chances of surviving with differing amounts of rainfall. The differing behaviours of oak and ash is coincidence - but gives us a nice easy to read empirical forecast. If you live in a city, it's undoubtedly not As easy to read as the BBC. Si Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobtail84 Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Red sky at night - shepherd's delight; red sky in morning - shepherd's warning. Minced lamb and mashed potato - shepherd's pie.... I'll get me coat.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Landy-Novice Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 (edited) If you define for ever as a year then yes... If it's a draw then it'll pour. i think i will stick with the bbc and take my changes Minced lamb and mashed potato - shepherd's pie.... I'll get me coat.. :rofl: :rofl: Edited August 2, 2011 by landy-novice Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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