Coronavirus

[Ex Member]

12 minutes ago, ballcock said:

3 weeks then the next 3 weeks then the next. we don't know how long this will go on for. I will try to make the most of my time doing something constructive whilst trying to minimise risk. 

China shut down for six weeks.  Place like the UK will be much longer as they are not behaving as nicely. These are the daily case counts for the UK. Just starting to see the steep part of exponential growth.

[mad_pete]

Yeah I know, it’s just 3 weeks as that seems manageable and then once we are in the groove just 3 weeks more and so on. Like at a restaurant when it’s just 10 minutes until a table is free and then just a little more. 
Still a Doctor coming off another 12 hour shift dealing with multiple deaths  isn’t going to want to be spending time stitching people up that couldn’t put them first when considering which activities needed doing. 

[mad_pete]

43 minutes ago, Escape said:

Because it's human nature. A lot of us don't want to just sit idle and try to make some use of the time we now get. Such as cleaning or tidying the house/garage/workshop, doing garden work or getting on with long standing projects. And while we will take all possible safety measures, chances are you'll run in to something that is easier and/or safer with a mate. Not intentionally looking for risk, far from it, but there's always the possibility and in the current situation I think it's more likely than under normal circumstances.

Filip

Human nature covers both sensible reasonable considerate action and selfish idiotic action. By all means do activities (I certainly am) , reading, planning, sensible exercise, light tidying.  Chances are you do run into a job that is better with two, so all possible safety measures aren’t open to you, so just stop right there and don’t do it move on to something else.

Be the sensible human nature.  

I’ve got a couple of cupboards that could do with being downstairs. Am I going to move them this weekend (or anytime soon)? Hell no. 

[FridgeFreezer]

I've now got 2 or 3 projects where making progress means going out for supplies - either to B&Q, a far away shed, or round to a mate's... I'm resisting the temptation.

Got punished with gardening duties today as if things aren't bad enough already!

[Escape]

3 hours ago, Red90 said:

China shut down for six weeks.  Place like the UK will be much longer as they are not behaving as nicely. These are the daily case counts for the UK. Just starting to see the steep part of exponential growth.

I'm not sure that's accurate. If the idea of the lockdown is to flatten the curve, a less strict lockdown (either by design or because people don't follow the rules) will mean less flattering so actually a shorter time before numbers drop. The problem is the peak needs to be manageable. Apart from Spain and Italy (despite their lockdown), I haven't seen any indications of the medical services being overwhelmed. It is claimed to be so in Bhellgium, but numbers say otherwise with only about 30 to 40% of reserved hospitals beds being used.  

To be clear, I'm not questioning the need to take measures (and will follow them within reason), just not convinced it's the right kind of measures and not buying into the panic.

Filip

[mad_pete]

I agree, people are saying the sooner we get locked down the sooner we get through it, but lockdown is to draw it out and flatten the curve.
The spread rate is exponential, the incubation period is 5 days or more and then another 2 weeks to get complications.  So applying the lock down brakes now wont take effect for a couple of weeks. So heath service can cope now but it’s all still going up for the next couple of weeks. 

Then we hold but there isn’t much of an exit strategy until the vaccine this time next year. Those that have been infected and have the antibody test go back to work and at risk people stay at home still.

China is starting to ease restrictions but with 60% immunity it’s all possible to get a second wave.

if the testing and control is really good that may be manageable and prevented.

 

[lo-fi]

Tells you everything you need to know about modeling. Even links to some interactive tools so you can play around with strategies yourself. 

[Ozzy50]

My wife works for YAS (Yorkshire Ambulance Service ) and says the number of accidents , RTA’s etc etc have fallen through the floor as obviously people aren’t working , aren’t driving as much , the roads are eerily quiet . I’m still working (farming ) and have been on the road all day with the slurry tanker , normal Saturdays are a nightmare with traffic , walkers and cyclists , seen no more than half a dozen of each today . Think of the spike when everyone eventually gets back on the roads and back to work (hopefully!) 😖

[davie]

i must admit i am cracking on slowly doing jobs on landy but with more thought into the what if....    

currently steam cleaned underside prior to waxoil - so only rear wheel off and used works much heavier duty 20 ton axle stands to keep from moving and 90% of it is done by just reaching under and no more in case moves, oh and other half is present all the time so if goes wrong i can get help called fast.

the extra coffee stop, set a small target each day to ensure no rush all sensible precautions.   

[cackshifter]

I have to say while there isn't much traffic round us, a fair proportion of it is going way too fast, not slightly over the limit but way over, or not slowing for junctions. We can hear motorbikes racing along the nearby A road. I can imagine that when accidents do happen they will be more serious than usual.

[davie]

good point on the traffic/speed - we live i guess 1 minute walk max from end of 40 into 60 limit and traffic is howling past,    so either rocket ship acceleration or just not sticking to limit.      must actually walk it as literally door to sign is real close.    

[Bowie69]

5 hours ago, davie said:

so either rocket ship acceleration

Imagine what this will be like when they are electric and can all do 0-60 in for seconds.

[Gazzar]

deleted - too dark.

[cackshifter]

It is just Darwin in action I suppose.

[Peaklander]

We live high up above the main road through the Hope Valley and over the years it's become a busy road as it provides a route west through to the Snake Pass and also directly over the hills to the dark side.

I'd say since about Thursday it has gone very quiet. Yesterday and today there are a few cars but no motorbikes. During last week there were plenty of work related vehicles, builders, farmers, quarry tankers and trucks. I'd expect that to continue until / unless there are tighter directives.

The snow showers and 5C with a breeze is also a factor today. 

Edited March 29, 2020 by Peaklander
Added current wx

[Ex Member]

20 hours ago, Escape said:

I'm not sure that's accurate. If the idea of the lockdown is to flatten the curve, a less strict lockdown (either by design or because people don't follow the rules) will mean less flattering so actually a shorter time before numbers drop. The problem is the peak needs to be manageable.

Unfortunately no.  A proper lockdown stops the spread and makes for less cases and a quicker end.  They did not just slow it.  They stopped it.  In one night, they closed everything and controlled all movement.  I have friends that have been there the whole time.  They think we are all idiots for not taking this seriously.

[Anderzander]

On 3/26/2020 at 1:05 PM, Nonimouse said:

So in reality we are all Nigel in some way

Perhaps he’s the archetype and we just have the traits ? 

[mad_pete]

55 minutes ago, Red90 said:

Unfortunately no.  A proper lockdown stops the spread and makes for less cases and a quicker end.  They did not just slow it.  They stopped it.  In one night, they closed everything and controlled all movement.  I have friends that have been there the whole time.  They think we are all idiots for not taking this seriously.

They are right we have been slow but once the lockdown finishes people can still catch it so the same issues exist. The virus remains out there waiting. 

China is now effectively importing cases as people come back from other places for example. 

You are going back to the start of the outbreak to a degree.

If you can test and isolate that might be okay but you need to be able to stay on top of it with that approach.

 

[Ex Member]

3 hours ago, mad_pete said:

The virus remains out there waiting. 

Well...not really.  Once there are no cases in an area, there is no virus. It can't live outside a host for long.  Then it is just a case of managing travelers.

I think you guys are not really thinking the whole thing through very well.  You do not go from complete lockdown to normal business in one day.  They are much more advanced.....   After the restrictions were relaxed, there was still strict control and monitoring.  Masks to go anywhere.  Limited people in buildings with permission. Temperatures measured on every person entering every building. Strict and continuous testing of any symptomatic people and aggressive contact tracing.

[Anderzander]

I think it can last 9 days on hard surfaces and remain in the air, likely within droplets, for 3 hours.

[mad_pete]

1 hour ago, Red90 said:

Well...not really.  Once there are no cases in an area, there is no virus. It can't live outside a host for long.  Then it is just a case of managing travelers.

I think you guys are not really thinking the whole thing through very well.  You do not go from complete lockdown to normal business in one day.  They are much more advanced.....   After the restrictions were relaxed, there was still strict control and monitoring.  Masks to go anywhere.  Limited people in buildings with permission. Temperatures measured on every person entering every building. Strict and continuous testing of any symptomatic people and aggressive contact tracing.

You can rest assured I have put a great deal of thought into this.   So while it is true once’s cases are gone they are gone but how do you know it’s really gone ?
The incubation period is 5-10 days and some people show no symptoms. People are infectious without symptoms and super spreaders can infect up to 10 people.  So that makes it harder. My last paragraph says you can test and isolate but you have to stay on top of it and keep that going until the vaccine. Strict test and isolate is the first phase of the virus response (Containment) so it’s like being back at the start.

[Eightpot]

Will be interesting, if not potentially distressing, to see the outcome of some of the varied policies around the world.  The US in particular doesn't seem to be responding in the way you would have imagined, hope that doesn't turn out a bad bet. 

When you look at the map of worst infected areas it definitely seems to be concentrating on cold damp climates - South Africa will be a usefull indicator of whether this thing may die off when the weather picks up. 

[smallfry]

I dont think its going to go away at all. Maybe minimised for a while, but it only takes one carrier.

Similar in a way to tuberculosis. 

[mad_pete]

It’s not a fast mutator as I understand it so immunity should hold as should the vaccine. 
The current view is the weather isn’t going to help unfortunately.  

I think US and Africa are going to have some tough times coming up. I hope I’m wrong.

[monkie]

1 hour ago, mad_pete said:

It’s not a fast mutator as I understand it so immunity should hold as should the vaccine. 
The current view is the weather isn’t going to help unfortunately.  

I think US and Africa are going to have some tough times coming up. I hope I’m wrong.

To give a little credibility to this post, although I'm not a virologist, I do speak to them regularly in my work and of course the topic of choice right now is this very subject. I'm working in the diagnostics business providing one of the RT-PCR tests and equipment (Google m2000sp/rt if you're interested) to diagnose this strain of coronavirus in hospital labs.

Although there are speculations, unfortunately at the moment we do not know for sure how fast this particular coronavirus mutates or how long immunity to it will last. Generally speaking warmer and dryer weather helps lessen the effects of respiratory infections, but again this can't be guaranteed as we just don't know with this novel strain. 

My biggest worry about everyone out there is not illness from the virus itself but the effect of anxiety in many people as the amount of ever increasing deaths are being announced daily. 

If anxious about the increasing deaths, this thought helps me in a strangely odd way:

If you look up UK death rate, we have about 500,000 people die in a year from old age, illness, accidents etc. This means that on average, just under 1400 people a day die in the UK anyway. As more and more people are infected with Covid 19 and test positive, then of course more of the 1400 deaths a day will also be positive for coronavirus and can then be reported in the news as a death after testing positive. This does skew the meaning a bit in my opinion. I wonder how many of the people dieing who are also tested positive for Covid 19 would have died regardless during 2020 of something else such as heart disease for example? The only way we can say with any certainty is see how many more than the expected 500,000 deaths there are in the UK in 2020. There have been suggestions that Covid 19 will have little effect on this number.